International Finance

 

 

The Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rate Determination

Assessment type: Written assignment

Description: Written assignment of 2,500 words on the Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rate Determination.

Main task

QUESTION

The Swiss National Bank projects losses on foreign currency transactions of CHF131 billion, with another CHF1 billion in losses on positions held in Swiss francs.

Switzerland’s central bank racked up estimated losses of 132 billion Swiss francs ($143 billion) for 2022—its biggest loss since 1907, and equal to around 18% of GDP.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) projects losses on foreign currency transactions of CHF131 billion, with another CHF1 billion in losses on positions held in Swiss francs. SNB made a small valuation gain of CHF400 million on its gold holdings.

The SNB, an august institution, has been accused of keeping a lid on the strength of the franc to support Switzerland’s export-centric economy. However, Switzerland saw gains in the value of the franc last year, due in part to a series of interest rate hikes designed to control imported inflation.

SNB’s record losses are not an isolated occurrence. Other central banks are under a cloud too. In the first quarter of 2022, the US Federal Reserve Bank showed $330 billion in unrealized losses. “The Fed followed that up with a [summer] statement saying that it expected to run at a loss for several years, booking between $60 billion to 180 billion in deferred assets, which is essentially an IOU to the government,” says Modulus CEO Richard Gardner. “In other words, a loss.”

However, it is difficult to normalize SNB’s losses, given fundamental differences in both policy and position between it and the US Fed. “In the US, the issue is that it paid more interest than it received in income,” Gardner explains. “With the Swiss, the majority of the losses were due to forex positions.”

The Swiss loss also represents a much greater portion of the country’s GDP than the Fed’s loss relative to US GDP. Definitive figures will be released on March 6. The annual report will be published on March 22.

Are SNB’s losses a harbinger of things to come? Several other national banks are sitting on losses, including the central banks of Australia, Belgium, Canada, England and Japan. The European Central Bank is also warning of losses.

(Accessed from https://www.gfmag.com/magazine/february-2023/switzerland-national-bank-historic-loss)

Discuss the above scenario, clearly providing your views on the implications of the issues on hand on the foreign exchange market and international monetary systems over the short, medium and long term.

 

International Finance

 

 

 

Q-1 Explain the benefits that multinational companies get from using foreign exchange markets. Even though multinational companies are believed to be beneficial for countries, why are some governments concerned with the growing importance of multinational companies?

Q-2 Explain the objective of multinational financial management? What are various aspects of world economy that have given rise to international financial management?

 

International finance.

Choose a Multinational Enterprise (MNE) listed on an internationally recognised Stock Exchange (including for example, London, Dublin, New York or Paris). You are required to:

a. Critically discuss two recent developments in the international financial environment which appear to have impacted on your chosen company’s recent performance and development. Analyse how these two developments are likely to impact on the company in the near future. (14 marks)

b. Discuss the following key elements of the MNE’s international financial and/or risk management strategy (and how they appear to have affected the financial performance of your chosen company):

 

International Finance

 

Problem Set 1
Oleg Itskhoki
Posted: January 20, 2021.
Due: January 30, 2021
Problem 1: Three-period consumption-savings problem
Consider a three-period decision problem:
max u(c0) + βu(c1) + β
2u(c2)
subject to the flow budget constraints for t = 0, 1, 2:
bt+1 = (1 + r)bt + yt − ct
,
where b0 is the initial wealth of the country.
1. Explain why in this three-period model it cannot be that b3 < 0 and it should not
be that b3 > 0.
2. Given this, use the flow budget constraints to derive the intertemporal budget constraint:
c0 +
c1
1 + r
+
c2
(1 + r)
2
= (1 + r)b0 + y0 +
y1
1 + r
+
y2
(1 + r)
2
.
Interpret this equation.
3. Show that the intertemporal budget constraint is equivalent to
(1 + r)b0 + nx0 +
nx1
1 + r
+
nx2
(1 + r)
2
= 0,
where nxt = yt − ct
. Explain why it is also equivalent to b0 + ca0 + ca1 + ca2 = 0,
where cat = rbt + nxt = bt+1 − bt
.
When is it possible to have nxt < 0 for every t = 0, 1, 2 and why? Which country
that we discussed might fit this description? Does it violate the logic that all trade
deficits must be compensated by trade surpluses?
1
4. Using your favorite method, derive the intertemporal optimality conditions for t = 0, 1:
u
0
(ct) = β(1 + r)u
0
(ct+1).
5. Assume b0 = 0 and β = 1 and r = 0. Solve for consumption c0, net exports nx0,
and current account ca0, by defining the concept of permanent income ¯y. Interpret
your results by providing examples for different y0 and ¯y.
Discuss intuitively how the result change when b0 < 0, β < 1, and r > 0.
Problem 2: Two-period model with investment
Consider a two-period economy facing the following budget constraints:
c1 + k + b ≤ y1,
c2 ≤ y2 + (1 + r)b,
where y1 is an exogenous endowment and second-period output
y2 = Akα
with 0 < α < 1 and productivity A. Note that k is both first period investment and
second period capital stock (implicitly assuming full depreciation, δ = 1). Also note that
initial b0 = 0, and hence b is both first-period current account and second-period net
foreign assets.
1. Explain how this special environment maps into the general framework of National
Income Accounts, and in particular why:
ca1 = y1 − c1 − k = b and ca2 = rb + y2 − c2 = −b.
2. Explain how to derive the intertemporal budget constraint:
c1 +
c2
1 + r
= y1 − k +
Akα
1 + r
.
3. Given this budget constraint, characterize the optimal capital investment k of the
country and interpret your results (how does optimal k depend on r and A, and why).
4. Explain why it is possible to determine optimal investment without characterizing
the optimal consumption-savings decision. In other words, why investment and
savings decisions separate and when would they not?
5. Why do we expect a country with a high A (relative to y1) to run a current account
deficit? What may be real-world examples of such countries?
2
Problem 3: “Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area”
Based on your reading of Blanchard and Giavazzi’s Brookings Papers article, evaluate as
being true, false or “it depends” the following statements (write 1–2 paragraphs for each):
1. Euro Zone integration in early 2000’s allowed Southern European countries to run
current account deficits because (1) they now faced lower interest rates and (2)
needed to borrow for investment to catch up to more developed countries of the
Northern Europe.
2. Policymakers should be acutely concerned about these current account deficits, as
they are driven by the private-sector borrowing as opposed to sovereign borrowing
by governments.
3. Closer financial and trade integration between countries allows for larger gaps between domestic investment and savings and should lead to larger current account
imbalances, with poorer developing countries running large current account deficits
against richer developed countries.